Grizzly Bear -thread

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Syksy
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Re: Grizzly Bear -thread

Post by Syksy » 2020-01-31, 11:24

Dear all,

returning to the timely issue of the Grizzly Bear Betting Shares.
I apologize that the original time line of launch last week did not become reality - the announcement and release of the VAL token came to me as a surprise, and I did not want to meddle in during the launch of a major asset tied to the game.

Now that the dust has settled a bit, I feel time has become ripe to fire off the betting shares. Only one question remains unclear; I outlined above 3 questions related to politics, culture, and economics. I still think these ought to be used. A good suggestion was to include a 4th question for the category 'Kingdom', i.e. a prediction regarding this very system. This is still open.

Some preliminary question/statement formulations are available, but I am not yet content with any of them so any input would be highly welcome:

(candidates)
Q4 (Kingdom): ID 5 will be sold (i.e. changes ownership to a player) by April 1st with an estimated price above X GLI TRUE/FALSE (difficult to estimate the real GLI price)
Q4 (Kingdom): A key asset/token from the Kingdom such as GLI/VAL is listed in a prominent crypto exchange by the end of the year, including e.g. TradeOgre, Binance, or Kraken, with exchange to either BTC or €/$.
Q4 (Kingdom): Playerbase will grow by X measured using Y before Z (forum accounts? player activity in KINGLI platform?)

All of such questions are also "loaded" in the sense, that we're betting inside the Kingdom of things happening for the Kingdom, so the betting is biased and at worst scenario could be gamed through in-game mechanics to a desired outcome. But when this is finally formulated in a nice way, Grizzly Bear will launch 4 questions with YES/NO shares for answers. @JPB has already kindly created the shares via admin commands, so it's only a matter of finalizing the fourth question that is connected to the Kingdom now.

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Re: Grizzly Bear -thread

Post by Johnny » 2020-01-31, 12:25

I would go with this one:

Q4 (Kingdom): A key asset/token from the Kingdom such as GLI/VAL is listed in a prominent crypto exchange by the end of the year, including e.g. TradeOgre, Binance, or Kraken, with exchange to either BTC or €/$.

Because that is something really HUGE, and would put VAL/GLI on the map worldwide!
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Re: Grizzly Bear -thread

Post by Johnny » 2020-01-31, 12:42

And my second choice would be:

Q4 (Kingdom): ID 5 will be sold (i.e. changes ownership to a player) by April 1st with an estimated price above X GLI TRUE/FALSE (difficult to estimate the real GLI price).

But maybe change it to June 1st?

That would also be huge, not HUGE, but huge :)

And I like to bet on huge things :D

Player base is also not bad alternative but account farming is no problem for a rich guy so more easy to manipulate...
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Re: Grizzly Bear -thread

Post by rekt-plebs » 2020-01-31, 16:17

I was eager to buy the bitcoin 10k by june option,
guess never happens.

there always has to be otherside, so they can't be too obvious ones :p
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Re: Grizzly Bear -thread

Post by HSF Loaf » 2020-01-31, 23:29

Agree with @Johnny's picks. For the ID one, maybe drop the sale price component and just have that it sold at all. That way, people don't have to predict 2 outcomes in one ;)

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Re: Grizzly Bear -thread

Post by Syksy » 2020-03-12, 11:25

Dear all,

My apologies regarding the silence for Grizzly Bear. A lot has been going on, both in my life as well as here-in. To summarize:

Shortly after VAL introduction, Grizzly Bear invested all of its liquid GLI into VAL. This was when VAL was priced at 70. It has since risen to 90, and I suspect it's still undervalued. Grizzly Bear will follow VAL with great interest.

Regarding the betting shares, the world situation's been fluctuating, as well as there have been some major new movements such as the VAL token introduction here, VAL token announcement extending to BCT, level system based on VAL, NPC introduction, a gossip journal in Finland reporting on KINGLI, stockmarkets in a freefall due to corona panic (?), a highly relevant PoI dying in real-life, and just now systematic security breach attempts. It's been a bit too hectic to start touting Grizzly Bear stuff.

In this light, I am planning Q4 (KINGLI-question) to be a price prediction regarding VAL. I am considering either a BTC/VAL-ratio threshold, or perhaps even a GLI/VAL-ratio. The latter in my opinion is a measure of trust in the KINGLI platform to be a long-lasting initiative by the general audience, as VAL returns by definition one GLI per week. So interestingly, the token is an emission system rather than currency per se.

Regarding the BTC/EUR prediction, as I had slightly anticipated, 10k€/BTC is sitting approximately at a magic barrier and despite the bullish run, the barrier was not breached and BTC is currently in a freefall. I might have to adjust this prediction threshold or its timing to make it more interesting.

Again apologies in the delay of the bet share offering, I will attempt to do this soon.

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Re: Grizzly Bear -thread

Post by Syksy » 2020-09-01, 19:23

Hi all,

quite obviously, Grizzly Bear (and pretty much everything related to this project) has ceased to operate/exist.

I am not eager to hop on yet an another media platform; I don't really understand the need for all these new mediums of communication, e.g.
1) Forums, registered and unregistered, with possibility to make limited access subforums.
2) Discord channel, died almost instantly.
3) Slack, with private invite-only channels possible, now seemingly dead.
4) Two separate Facebook "official discussions", with the second one being created because of Waffa's monologues in the first iteration.
5) Various pokes/threads at BitCoinTalk.
6) YouTube channel(s), twitch.tv, etc.

...and now moving on to Telegram for no apparent reason? TG will rule out people who cannot or will not want to register to its services with a verifiable telephone number. I guess next would've been WhatsApp or something.

Not really ideal for a project that would've involved software implementation; in contrast, the project never made its way e.g. to GitHub, where it finally could've been open source. Might want to consider such in the future, if you really still intend to pursue this further.

So this is my goodbye I guess. Thanks, and all the best to you all. Bye!


I had left the following message on Slack, in case some of you are interested in a crypto-MMO under development:
We have been working on a project independently of KotD or CK for well over a year now. The project basically implements a blockchain, which creates a cryptocurrency that is embedded to a game. The game is set in a medievalish society, and all in-game actions, such as player-driven economy, are stored in the blockchain. We are currently testing the game in a private testnet. The project is open source, free, and will go public once we feel it's matured enough. Here's an example video of me building a windmill, which will produce food:

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Re: Grizzly Bear -thread

Post by Cryptostoteles » 2020-09-03, 13:46

Syksy wrote:
2020-09-01, 19:23
produce food:
wow 😮
HIH Cryptostotlé SA-COL •• ••• 🇪🇪 ²³™
LV.73 ⚜ IMPERIAL Prince of KEILA
Lord Lársson the Great, 26*OHK-Hero, Member of HIM Ministry of Truth
•• ••• | •• ••• | •• ••• |
student of cryptosophy & cryptotalism
FF///503™

🖤

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Re: Grizzly Bear -thread

Post by Wäinämöinen » 2020-09-06, 0:01

Syksy wrote:
2020-09-01, 19:23
quite obviously, Grizzly Bear (and pretty much everything related to this project) has ceased to operate/exist.
On the other hand, maybe not. Maybe we can find a way forward.
Syksy wrote:
2020-09-01, 19:23
...and now moving on to Telegram for no apparent reason? TG will rule out people who cannot or will not want to register to its services with a verifiable telephone number. I guess next would've been WhatsApp or something.
There's no sense in that whatsoever. This (the forum) is the place where everything started and this is where everyone is. There's no reason why we could not keep communicating here.
Syksy wrote:
2020-09-01, 19:23
So this is my goodbye I guess. Thanks, and all the best to you all. Bye!
I hope not. Please don't leave. At least not yet.
Syksy wrote:
2020-09-01, 19:23
We have been working on a project independently of KotD or CK for well over a year now.
I'd be very interested to hear more. Been carving up some plans and ideas that might be useful for your project.

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Re: Grizzly Bear -thread

Post by Syksy » 2020-09-12, 15:15

Wäinämöinen wrote:
2020-09-06, 0:01

I'd be very interested to hear more. Been carving up some plans and ideas that might be useful for your project.
Sure, I can try keep people in the loop. Just to emphasize again, this is an independent project of KotD and likely incompatible (e.g. we can't transfer KotD's or CK's gamestate to our game - we offer no ICO, premine or anything. We're doing things tabula rasa).

Our project's been quite challenging, as it relies on our own actual blockchain implementation, with all game action stored in the chain, and in-game currency rewarded for mining. Complex game mechanics and the chain are potentially susceptible to DDoS and we're taking proper precautions, a small overflow bug can cause person to gain a spurious amount of items etc, so we're proceeding cautiously.We try to make this as reliable as possible, since it *is* essentially also a cryptocurrency as well as a game. It's not similar to current KotD in the sense, that one could just revert back the main DB state if a problem arose - we'd be screwed with the consensus approach since there is no centralization and every node is equal. The fact that the game relies on a blockchain and decentralization has rendered some otherwise great ideas incompatible, so it has to be taken into account with every design choice we do.

We're slowly progressing towards a public testnet. Last night I was testing out founding a new city and specializing its properties and bonuses to attract certain types of settlers, while sculpting the following statue in its central market square over the course of several hours:



The problem with an actual blockchain game is, that once it's really out there, fixing any consensus-bugs are likely to be nigh impossible without a hard-fork. So we're trying to cover any potential gaps and widen the audience slowly. With all the sloppy/crappy crypto money-grabs out there, we're taking the "better safe than sorry" approach, given that we've already put a considerable amount of work into this already and are serious about making a good crypto MMO.

Currently we've fixed few key bugs for v0.22 and will reset the chain soon. We're looking at a lore-driven quest system, where we store quests as JSON in the chain, and in addition to that we'll have GM-account driven quests with actual rewards etc.

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