Grizzly Bear -thread

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Grizzly Bear -thread

Post by Syksy » 2019-12-14, 0:29

▁ ▂ ▄ ▅ ▆ ▇ █ - 𝓖𝓻𝓲𝔃𝔃𝓵𝔂 𝓑𝓮𝓪𝓻 - █ ▇ ▆ ▅ ▄ ▂ ▁

Grizzly Bear Investment Fund

This thread will cover all aspects regarding TMIF - GBIF and any other associated Grizzly Bear actions (in CK4, the actions of Grizzly Bear covered multiple subtopics).


TMIF - Grizzly Bear Investment Fund (GBIF, inspired legacy name; fund run by Syksy)


GBIF is interested not only in companies and initiatives, but also in speculation for KINGLI-incorporated goods and niché products. This focus rises partly from past experience (i.e. CK4) on a similar platform (Grizzly Bear was a successful CK4 company producing BEER and clothing during consumables era of CK4, with Syksy as its acting CEO). Regarding novel initiatives, GBIF is mainly interested in companies that actually have a product with a solid & ready proof-of-concept and preferably some prior example case of such a functional enterprise either in-game or in real-life. GBIF therefore seeks to be a data-driven, sensible choice for people looking for a fund with its feet firmly on the ground.

-- DECEMBER 13TH, 2019 STATUS --

Action report:

With 100mil initial capital, GBIF started out swiftly by approaching multiple people in private regarding investable assets. However, majority of these did not lead to finalized transactions. Some collectibles (coins) were obtained, of which I consider DMC1E by far the most important, but the collectibles markets is highly unpredictable as it is currently stagnant and requires an active playerbase and other incentives attached to them. However, as per my CK experiences, I felt now was the best time to go for such collectibles. Of note, the initial purchase of CharID 41 to be used as GBIF's own account was already an investment per se, as 2-digit CharIDs had become increasing scarce.

GBIF quickly turned its focus to the rather impressive announcement of JLD for actively having 3-4 traders working in crypto exchanges in addition to their in-game CEO and corporate structure. As an individual, I (Syksy) concluded that investing in JLD would be mutually beneficial as they'd gain critical start-up capital for their active traders, while I could still function at par with their TMIF's head count (4:1 as I saw it, disregarding available time - I considered myself an underdog in this respect).

GBIF quickly secured 49% of S-JLD, through direct transactions in KINGLI Marketplace for 1milGLI á 1% ownership as well as by offering other investors a 1.4mil á 1% ownership offers in private. While this is an extremely considerable portion of GBIF initial liquid funds, I evaluated that 49% ownership of a company with similar starting conditions and a solid looking plan was a highly interesting venue.

However, as it turned out, these shares and corresponding ownership %s were announced erroneously, and the share-count was adjusted in-game by creating more S-JLD. This diluted GBIF's ownership from 49% to 32.4%, as GBIF simultaneously honored previously privately agreed upon deals of S-JLD purchases despite this share adjustment. GBIF remains the largest shareholder of S-JLD so I am not particularly concerned, and I am looking forward to working with JLD as well as hearing of their ambitious endeavours that reach even outside the KINGLI platform. It should be noted that considerable amount of GBIF's initial capital did go into JLD, and therefore as the largest single shareholder for this company GBIF's future is intertwined with JLD's success, at least for now.

Along came the CharID dumps. I am an applied mathematician by profession, so naturally numerology does have a special place in my heart. However, when I say numerology, I do not mean astrology, angel numbers or mysticism, albeit I respect people's right to have interest in such - they just aren't really my thing. I am mainly interested in mathematical phenomena, such as sequences or constants of importance. I did however look up on multiple IDs in the 3- and 4-digits that are not mathematical per se, as they are e.g. pop-culture references, of religious importance in particular cultures, or are otherwise aesthetical by nature (such as symmetrical). The 1-digit market is basically dead, and 2-digit markets quickly died out as people withdrew their sales in anticipation of CharIDs skyrocketing in ID<100 range. GBIF waited a while and observed several CharID transactions being purchased by the other TMIFs, and considered that around 800k á CharID was a reasonable price to step in. As the floor would be 500k, GBIF evaluated that 800k <-> 500k difference would be negligible if CharID value would indeed take off, and the more decisive factor was to purchase IDs of importance before others could. As such, GBIF bought dozens of CharIDs, which are listed and motivated below in GBIF's assets. GBIF continues to actively monitor the on-going DUMP as well as other potentially interesting purchase activities.

Dragon (1): 40,000 (40.0% of total shares)
Fairy (7): 40,000 (40.0% of total shares)
Soul (2): 20,000 (20.0% of total shares)


Liquid funds:
GLI - 730k

S-JLD x48,999 (32.4% ownership)


CharID numbers (reasoning; hand-picked due to either aesthetics or special properties):
216 (Smallest number that can be represented as the sum of three cubes i.e. 3^3 + 4^3 + 5^3, also known as "the True Name of God" in mysticism; )
224 (2+2=4, 2^2=4)
341 (Smallest Fermat pseudoprime of base 2, also known as Poulet numbers; ... Definition )
424 (Symmetry 4|2|4)
456 (Increasing sequence in steps of 1)
496 (Only 3-digit perfect number, )
567 (Increasing sequence in steps of 1)
678 (Increasing sequence in steps of 1)
720 (Multiple interesting properties, e.g. 6! = 10! - 7! = 720; )
786 (A popular religious numerilogical connotation in the Asian continent, especially Indian subcontinent; ... nificance/ )
840 (Decreasing sequence in steps of 4)
987 (Decreasing sequence in steps of 1)
1077 (Fry's PIN-code in the show Futurama that made him ultra rich; "price of a cheese pizza and a large soda from Panucci's Pizza")
1089 (Famous "Magician's number", also 33^2=1089; )
1123 (4 first digits of the Fibonacci sequence, also beauty)
1221 (Symmetry 12|21)
1248 (Sequence 2^x where x = {0,1,2,3})
1357 (Increasing sequence in steps of 2)
1729 (Hardy-Ramanujan number, also known as the taxicab number, which is famous regarding K3 surfaces and elliptic curves with a widely spread story of the Indian math genius Ramanujan); ... drive.html )
2048 (2^11, important number in binary systems)
2112 (Symmetry 21|12)
2345 (Increasing sequence in steps of 1)
3003 (Symmetry 30|03)
3210 (Decreasing sequence in steps of 1)
3435 (Münchhausen Number with unique properties;
3456 (Increasing sequence in steps of 1)
4004 (Symmetry 40|04)
4224 (Symmetry 42|24)
5040 (According to Greek philosopher Plato, 5040 portrays perfection and beauty, e.g. ideal size of a city/district; ... ly-awesome )
5432 (Decreasing sequence in steps of 1)
6174 (Famous number known as Kaprekar's constant with rather surprising properties, ... rekar.html )
6543 (Decreasing sequence in steps of 1)
6996 (Symmetry 69|96)
7654 (Decreasing sequence in steps of 1)
8128 (Only 4-digit perfect number; )
8421 (Sequence 2^x where x = {3,2,1,0})
8765 (Decreasing sequence in steps of 1)
9669 (Symmetry 96|69)
9876 (Decreasing sequence in steps of 1)
10002 (First 5-digit number that was available for a reasonable price)


Monetary short term prospects:

I am not yet fully aware of how interested investors (such as Loaf's announced initial capita) will go into the TMIF's, so this remains a wild card of increased liquidity.

While GBIF has not listed any of above CharIDs, shares or collectibles for sale at the Marketplace, I am completely open to any offers. Anybody interested in GBIF's listed assets (shown above) may contact me via multiple means; in this thread, forum private message, possibly Discord, or Slack.

I am also interested in talking about widening our activities (e.g. taking in active people working for GBIF) and/or spread of our ownership, but that is not entirely in my hands.

Future insight:

In short term there are no significant monetary activity expected, as GBIF has tied majority of its initial funds to long term investments (such as CharIDs and coins) or JLD (which reports in a separate TMIF thread). Naturally, if opportunity arises, GBIF will free assets and then evaluate further possibility in investing its funds within the KINGLI platform.

As promised, GBIF considers itself a stable choice for potential investors - I expect the value of CharIDs and JLD's performance to correlate with the success of user adoption of KINGLI, thus investing in GBIF could be seen as a proxy for KINGLI's performance.

Signed by Yours Truly,
Syksy, chair of the Grizzly Bear

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Re: Grizzly Bear -thread

Post by Syksy » 2019-12-16, 4:45


GLI 20,736,000

-- REP --

S-JLD x48,999 (28.7% ownership)

short username (userid) - stock count (ownership %)

Dragon (1) - 40,000 (32.7%)
Fairy (7) - 40,000 (32.7%)
Soul (2) - 20,000 (16.3%)
ETInvest (1952) - 12,500 (10.2%)
Loaf (33) - 7,500 (6.1%)
Syksy (17) - 2,400 (2.0%)

(total 122,400 S-GBIF in existence)

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Re: Grizzly Bear -thread

Post by Syksy » 2020-01-13, 22:51

Introducing the...

▁ ▂ ▅ ▆ ▇ 𝓖𝓻𝓲𝔃𝔃𝓵𝔂 𝓑𝓮𝓪𝓻 - 𝔹𝔼𝕋𝕋𝕀ℕ𝔾 𝕊ℍ𝔸ℝ𝔼𝕊 𝟚𝟘𝟚𝟘 ▇ ▆ ▅ ▂ ▁

Think you are wise and can predict the future? Well, Grizzly Bear is here to spice up the markets and give you the chance to prove it!

Grizzly Bear (Investment Fund aka. GBIF) will be creating 3 prediction shares for TRUE/FALSE statements for the upcoming year 2020. Three simple questions (simple as in, they're relatively easy to verify) were now invented out of three potentially interesting categories (Politics, Economics, and Culture).

These three questions/predictions are:

Q1 (Politics): President Donald Trump will be re-elected in November 2020 to be the President of the United States of America for second term.

General link to information of the election is available at: ... l_election )

Q2 (Economics): Bitcoin will be worth more than 10,000€/BTC at any given time point prior to 1st of July, 2020. Kraken exchange will be used and even rounding to 10,000€ per BTC at Kraken is enough to indicate positive outcome.

Cutoff time will be midnight in Finnish time from 30th June to 1st July. The starting time point is the start of shares sale; if BTC peaks above 10k€/BTC before I can even sell shares this is a redundant question. If the set price limit of 10,000€/BTC is reached before 1st of July, the positive outcome is assumed and the prizes will be rewarded without waiting all the way to 1st of July. Please note that the currency in question is €, not $. For former trends see a screen capture of current exchange rate at Kraken below:


Q3 (Culture): A Nordic or a Baltic country will win the Eurovision 2020 contest held in Rotterdam, Netherlands on May 25th, 2020.

General link to information of the contest is available at: ... ntest_2020
The following countries will be considered "Nordic" or "Baltic" in this context: Iceland, Norway, Sweden, Denmark, Finland, Estonia, Latvia, Lithuania; so please notice "Baltic" here is not just any country with a shore-line with the Baltic sea.


The following items will be created and put out to the markets at 1mil GLI á piece by GBIF:
GBIF-Q1TRUE (Positive outcome of statement in Q1)
GBIF-Q1FALSE (Negative outcome of statement in Q1)
GBIF-Q2TRUE (Positive outcome of statement in Q2)
GBIF-Q2FALSE (Negative outcome of statement in Q2)
GBIF-Q3TRUE (Positive outcome of statement in Q3)
GBIF-Q3FALSE (Negative outcome of statement in Q3)

- Each question will be handled separately in rewarding the correct predictions.
- GBIF will place a base prize pool of 1mil GLI for each of the questions. After this, shares will be created for public access at 1million each.
- By placing a base prize pool, GBIF reserves the right to take a cut of 5% of prize pools before rewarding correct predictions when the questions are resolved (think of this as an administrative fee or why I'm arranging this whole thing in the first place).
- Initial betting phase will include GBIF selling shares for each statement at a 1million GLI per each. This initial sell period will hopefully start this week (as soon as I get permission and/or help from admins with access to relevant commands in KINGLI), and will last for 2 weeks from initiation. GBIF will sell shares at a fixed price at this point, and they will be limitlessly available in quantity as long as people want to buy them.
- Prediction share sales are publicly visible as they are items sold on KINGLI. Note that the prize pool may grow larger over the span of this 2 weeks - you can check this e.g. by "OWNS GBIF-Q2TRUE" and "OWNS GBIF-Q2FALSE" and count the non-GBIF owned shares and multiply by 1mil GLI.
- After two weeks GBIF stops selling these betting shares, remaining shares that were not sold by GBIF will be consumed, and any free trading of the betting shares may commence (you can also start it during GBIF's sale). GBIF will freeze question-specific funds obtained from the initial share sale, and pool the prizes per each question and announce them in this thread. Thus, at this point any further GLI obtained from share selling will go the seller, and the prize pool will remain frozen. Please note, that each question will have its separate prize pool.
- After this initial period, players may sell betting shares to each other at any price the markets dictate. Presumably, as we approach the correct answer in each question, the prices of the player-sold shares in KINGLI may vary (i.e. based on polls or during vote-counting in Eurovision). Grizzly Bear cannot guarantee market transactions during this period, but has faith that the KINGLI platform is up and running reliably.
- GBIF will not buy shares with its capital. However, Syksy account as myself may purchase betting shares.

Once a question is resolved (notice they're spread roughly equivalently along the year; May, July, November 2020), the prize rewards will be given in proportion to the ownership of the correct shares for the corresponding question. The following procedure will be used:
- GBIF takes its cut of Q#'s prize pool. Remaining prize pool is 95% of betting shares bought for the corresponding prediction Q#.
- A hopefully clear consensus is available on whether Q#TRUE or Q#FALSE is correct. GBIF reserves right to be the ultimate judge in this process, but in an unlikely scenario (e.g. Eurovision is cancelled, Kraken exchange ceases to exist, or USA dissolves as a country), prize funds will be returned. Similarly, if for some reason GBIF ceases to exist or I disappear or something, an attempt is made to return these frozen prize funds to their buyers.
- People holding shares for the wrong prediction will not get anything. People with the correct prediction will be given money from the prize pool in proportion to their correct shares (aka. dividend-like rewarding).


Hypothetical example using Q2
John, Jane, Jim and Jill are cryptogurus and want to bet on Q2, with the first two predicting positive outcome and latter two predicting negative outcome.

They purchase from GBIF:
- John buys 7 units of Q2TRUE (7mil GLI transferred to GBIF's Q2 pool)
- Jane buys 2 units of Q2TRUE (2mil GLI transferred to GBIF's Q2 pool)
- Jim buys 4 units of Q2FALSE (4mil GLI transferred to GBIF's Q2 pool)
- Jill buys 6 units of Q2FALSE (6mil GLI transferred to GBIF's Q2 pool).
After two weeks as the share betting closes, we now have Q2's pool of 1 (GBIF) + 7 (John) + 2 (Jane) + 4 (Jim) + 6 (Jill) = 20mil GLI.

Jane thinks BTC is really on a bullish run, and in middle of March buys one of John's shares at 1.2mil (John set up a sales order). This is a matter between just them, as the betting shares are free market now. Prize pool doesn't change. Notice that the amount of shares doesn't change any more either.

Let's assume at July 1st midnight Finnish time BTC has not reached 10,000€/BTC according to Kraken's prize history, so we assume Q2FALSE is the correct answer. BTC/EUR peaked at say 9,998.42€/BTC, but that's not enough so the negative outcome is correct. Q2TRUE people do not get anything. Therefore:

- GBIF takes a cut of 0.05 * 20mil = 1mil; remaining prize pool is 20 - 1 = 19mil GLI. (GBIF didn't make a profit - oh well)
- Jim has 4/(4+6) = 40% of Q2FALSE, and gets 0.4 * 19 = 7.6mil (almost doubling his investment)
- Jill has 6(4+6) = 60% of Q2FALSE, and gets 0.6 * 19 = 11.4mil (again almost doubling her investment).


Please, please note that these question and/or purchases of shares do not represent people's personal views on the matter at hand. They are merely probability questions; as an example, one may want their lovely country Estonia to win Eurovision 2020, but still buy Q3FALSE because of what they think is the likely outcome (not what they'd *wish* was the outcome). Furthermore, formulation of these questions does not represent my views in any way; I merely tried to think of interesting prediction question from 3 different fields, with hopefully simple outcomes and easy to remember thumb-rule round numbers and dates. It's an experiment and something to stimulate the people on KINGLI.

Please feel free to discuss. The shares are not yet created as I do not hold admin rights, and I will await whether if I get proper permission to do this thing on KINGLI. If you notice a flaw in the procedure, please do comment. Or if anything is unclear, feel free to ask questions here or in private.

Any discussion is highly encouraged; you can even suggest an additional question (or say one of them is dumb, and it ought to be discarded - I'm able to adjust from this baseline). Furthermore, speculation is naturally interesting, especially if backed up with good facts and such.

Hopefully you'll find this interesting.

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Re: Grizzly Bear -thread

Post by Johnny » 2020-01-13, 23:54

What a wonderful idea, things like this is needed for active game play.

Edit: the price of 1 mil gli per share might be a little high. I could afford only 1 share atm :D
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Re: Grizzly Bear -thread

Post by HSF Loaf » 2020-01-14, 1:41

Syksy wrote:
2020-01-13, 22:51
Hopefully you'll find this interesting.
@Dragon this is amazing work quality imo :clap:

BET has 445mil GLI just hanging out. Maybe @Syksy needs a CEO position? ;)

In any event, if GBIF is to give BET some competition, I wonder if there is a way for the trade between GBIF and JLD to be corrected? Any ideas @Neo? I'm pretty sure our resident mathematician wouldn't have tried to buy 50% of JLD only for it to turn into less than 30% :think:

I say filling GBIF's coffers with additional GLI by doing something to reverse that transaction would be worth it for the additional gameplay possibilities opened up by more offerings such as this prediction betting. JLD would still be flush with cash and could even collect a 5%-10% "fee" on the value of the trade. JLD share supply would also go down. Wins all around imo :thumbup:

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Re: Grizzly Bear -thread

Post by rekt-plebs » 2020-01-14, 7:55

This is wonderful idea, more tradeables yayay :clap:
161: Wise EP the Most Honorable Marquess of KotD Põdrus, COO TMIF-JLD, MD SharesFive, graduate of pumpEconomics; BA.E.S.S.

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Re: Grizzly Bear -thread

Post by Syksy » 2020-01-14, 9:35

Thank you all for the interest in this competition, as well as good ideas and feedback!

To summarize a few new upcoming changes and/or additions:

- Good comment by @Johnny, it is true that 1mil á share is steep, it was a nice round number but it's currently unfeasible with the state of people's liquid funds. I suggest changing this to 100k á share.

- That being said, this is an excellent opportunity for the other TMIFs to offer e.g. loan services (so gently poking @JPB and @Neo for this). I think GBIF will be tying majority of its capital to the prizes, so I won't set up such options (at least not yet), but this option is now open for anybody interested (doesn't have to be a TMIF, loan a fellow money if you think they're clairvoyant and can return that loan at a good rate).

- Good discussions with @HSF Loaf; I think we'll leave any discussions regarding BET or JLD to a separate occasion, as I'd love to get this prediction thing going on. We briefly discussed questions and the setup of this competition, and Loaf gave an excellent suggestion for Q4 (Kingdom). I'm trying to formulate a 4th statement with a relatively short term evaluation of its correctness (like, hopefully around March) and with the topic being directly related to the Kingdom (either the gaming platform or forums). Loaf suggested a statement regarding S-5 or CAN, and I think these are good options - my only concern is that since they're KINGLI related goods, their "prediction" can be gamed and thus the prediction task is biased. I will think about how to formulate this, but be advised that statement Q4 (Kingdom) is actively being formulated. Further advantage in this Q4 is that it fills a niché for a short-term prediction. I just need to think how to formulate this question so it's easy to verify and as unbiased as possible.

- Any further question/statement ideas are very much welcome!

- Since there has already been interest and people appear keen to have an interesting GLI investment opportunity on KINGLI, I am considering adjusting the GBIF base pool prize as well as the corresponding % cut from the prize pool. I am thinking of GBIF setting a 4mil GLI base pool prize per question, and in return takes a 10% cut of the resulting prize pool. I think this would be interesting, as the base stakes are then higher (base pool increased 4-fold, while GBIF's cut is increased 2-fold). Thoughts, comments? I think this is a fair adjustment and is an increased incentive to participate.

- Please notice that buying these betting shares are pretty long term investments. Once the shares are bought, your GLI are tied to the predictions. For example, I cannot return you money for buying shares, as the prize pool will be frozen and prediction dates are also fixed; e.g. the Q1 of US presidential elections (which is highly interesting question world-wide) will require us to wait until November 2020 to find out the outcome. So factor this into account when considering buying betting shares. GBIF cannot buy back the bets as this would be unfair towards the other participants; however you could sell them to fellow players in the markets if there's an immediate need for liquid funds or such.

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Re: Grizzly Bear -thread

Post by Phoenix » 2020-01-15, 9:56

Syksy wrote:
2020-01-13, 22:51
▁ ▂ ▅ ▆ ▇ 𝓖𝓻𝓲𝔃𝔃𝓵𝔂 𝓑𝓮𝓪𝓻 - 𝔹𝔼𝕋𝕋𝕀ℕ𝔾 𝕊ℍ𝔸ℝ𝔼𝕊 𝟚𝟘𝟚𝟘 ▇ ▆ ▅ ▂ ▁
Hello! After voicing with Syksy, the following holds:

1. It is generally restricted to create new items. Only the GM (me) may authorise them. The reason is that we don't want to clutter the game too much before the procedures for doing so are fully clear. (They will be.) If you have items ideas, tell them to me, and if I get back, I approve. Otherwise I don't. (Serje has ideas that I have not yet approved.)

2. Using GBIF for this purpose and new'ing/creating ("to new" = add a new item row to the DB, "to create" = create instances of this item) the associated items is allowed. DrWang (52) is the guy who creates the items so contact him after authorisation by me. @JPB

3. Item names must conform to Universal IDspace rules (12 chars max, not begin with number, DrWang knows).

4. Item unit price should be meaningful for the purpose. Stock prices should be set around 1,000-10,000 GLI. I think this kind of coupon is best in the same range. 1M is needlessly high for sure.

5. Syksy declined my offer to do this "in a larger scale" under Bet. Bet will expand to this and other markets later.

6. GBIF must file reports on its financial position carefully, so that prospective investors understand that prize pools are its liability.

7. GBIF buying shares in JLD matter is settled, with nothing further happening. All parties are OK. (The initial offer to double-sell shares that already were bought by other investors, was invalid and unenforceable. The situation now is negotiated between parties.) @HSF Loaf
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Re: Grizzly Bear -thread

Post by Phoenix » 2020-01-15, 9:57

As for loan etc. services, a major rehaul is coming! Until then, please do not entangle in fantastic loan arrangements, rather keep it simple ;)
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Re: Grizzly Bear -thread

Post by HSF Loaf » 2020-01-15, 10:59

Phoenix wrote:
2020-01-15, 9:56
7. GBIF buying shares in JLD matter is settled, with nothing further happening. All parties are OK. (The initial offer to double-sell shares that already were bought by other investors, was invalid and unenforceable. The situation now is negotiated between parties.)
Thank you for this and the other clarifications :)

[mention]Neo[/mention] and [mention]Syksy[/mention] - if you are mutually interested, I think you should work out an arrangement to rectify GBIF's investment in JLD. As part of the deal, JLD can profit 5%-10% off the original amount GBIF spent and the JLD share supply will be rebought and reduced. This will provide GBIF with additional liquidity to offer interesting investment opportunities like the ones outlined above :)

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