Wall Observer BTC/GLI - GLI price movement tracking & discussion

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Wall Observer BTC/GLI - GLI price movement tracking & discussion

Post by Phoenix »

Here we speculate about the exchange rate and market cap of GLI and other currencies.
(This thread has retroactively been edited to show GLI in place of the earlier code.)

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Re: Wall Observer BTC/GLI - GLI price movement tracking & discussion

Post by Phoenix »

**** Hello all! Inspired by the original,
this is going to be an

all-inclusive thread about speculation ****



As I write this (18DW131), we have just passed the lowest GLI market cap, I think the record low was 0.37M GLI (which roughly equals the same in euros, since GLI is pegged to EUR with a mechanism that (manually administered) increases or decreases the quantity of GLI, based on the exchange rate deviating from the target, which is 0.90 GLI/EUR.

We are going to take it to 10T. Let us first assess the magnitude of the challenge:

Initial: 1,000,000
Target: 10,000,000,000,000
Target/Initial: 10,000,000

And after the low just reached, the Fixing in 18DW was promising, with +36%. So now we are at 0.55M GLI, therefore still almost half down from the inception of GLI (then: DM).

I think we are going to get there. What do you guys think? :think:
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Re: Wall Observer BTC/GLI - GLI price movement tracking & discussion

Post by Phoenix »

The dynamics that I'd like to point out in the beginning, when we think about what factors govern the price appreciation of GLI:

1. Price is determined by the interaction of supply and demand. As with all coins, sudden investor interest rises the price a lot. FUD causes abrupt crashes. Dragon and possibly other market makers seeks to cushion the changes, which are still expected to be gut-wrenching (see BTC history). It is impossible to grow 10,000,000x in a linear/log-linear fashion, it will necessarily be turbulent.

2. The organic supply of GLI (to be exchanged to other currencies such as BTC via Fixing) is small:

The Kingdom does not have such needs that require legacy financing. For our vision and development, we only employ the brightest on the planet with the highest efficiency, and at low to no cost.

Often coins, shares etc. are treated as investments, so that the goal of the involvement is to eventually sell, and gain legacy currency (EUR, USD, BTC). The bookkeeping is kept in the legacy currency. This is contrary to GLI, which seeks to replace fiat currencies (leaving cryptos to their legitimate roles). Therefore cashing out to fiat does not make sense, and cashing out to BTC is speculation, which is expected to happen only to a small extent.

The majority of GLI is in non-speculative hands. Many of the initial contributors do not care about their balance per se, and are in no intention to exchange any of it away.

3. Half of the GLI market cap growth is allocated to the community (holders of REP) and half to the holders of GLI. The actual effect of this to anything is unclear. It should theoretically lower the investor interest because of "high inflation".

4. Fixings are a special feature that allows costless exchange of 2 non-regulated currencies (GLI, BTC) to be exchanged. The transparency of this event increases trust.

5. The Dragon has a very large influence on anything that happens with GLI economy, and it can essentially be called the Dragon's sandbox.
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Re: Wall Observer BTC/GLI - GLI price movement tracking & discussion

Post by Phoenix »

Projects like this, I think are priced at about 50M-1B market cap at the MVP stage (in our case, when it is possible to log in to something other than a google sheet). I therefore see a clear growth trajectory getting there. My outlook on everything is positive. When we get this moving, Bet will launch speculation products, mainly for the lolz though, because GLI exchange rate is really going to be volatile enough without them...

Short term, I predict we should gravitate to the target 50k/activated account. We have 41 such accounts, so are -73% below the target. (The economic validity of the target is unproven though: If we were Bitcoin with 5k target, we would be +168%. Time will tell.)
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Re: Wall Observer BTC/GLI - GLI price movement tracking & discussion

Post by Phoenix »

[mention]HSF Loaf[/mention] We probably don't have many old-time BTCers here just yet - I posted almost 24 hours ago and no replies yet :wtf:

Others - this thread is sought to develop a special character. I will nurture it. Been doing such earlier such as with "rpietila public diary". Unlike those, I don't seek to moderate this one, although that option remains.

As for the topic, I think we are in the stage of quantum foam, about the same as BTC in late-July 2010. Price will probably correct upwards pretty violently soon. Well, I know it's up to me really, but don't let that disturb you. Anyone who wants to invest now, will be able to get in. Just contact me (this forum, FB or txt +37258700011), 1 BTC+.

We do want investors. We do want people who hold an important percentage of the market cap, to balance the markets. Your chance to be one of the richest people on Earth is always there, but now cheaper than ever ;)
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Re: Wall Observer BTC/GLI - GLI price movement tracking & discussion

Post by HSF Loaf »

Phoenix wrote:
2019-09-22, 10:21
@HSF Loaf We probably don't have many old-time BTCers here just yet - I posted almost 24 hours ago and no replies yet :wtf:
Not really sure what sort of analysis can be provided at this early stage :P

There are around 550k GLI. Of that amount, I'd say 450k GLI is in Dragon-related ownership:

Dragon 183k
Fairy 101k
Soul 67k
SoulFund 23k
Platform 41k
Bet Corp 40k

So that makes for 80%+ of the GLI supply held by Dragon-related entities. It doesn't matter the number of functional GLI units, this 80% amount will more or less be held unless there is massive GLI selling by these entities. I don't see that happening as Dragon has been a net buyer during all fixings, making his ownership percentage even HIGHer ;)

And of course, there is also the direct and implied ownership of in-game items and the economy itself. On BET for example, Dragon and Soul own 70% of the entity (so 28k GLI implied ownership plus their 70% direct entity ownership). So even though I own 18% of BET (7.2k GLI), it sort of ends up being a wash in the grand scheme compared to the Dragon's hoard and of course I am a minority holder :P

From an analytical perspective, with so much of the GLI supply being closely-held (and REP-based weekly GLI creation is HIGHer than 80% for these entities combined), GLI sort of functions like Ripple (XRP) where the coin hoard is created and trickled out to the economy.

XRP does want legacy currency though, as shown by their tens of millions of dollars worth of institutional XRP selling monthly so they have fiat to hire former regulators, lobbyists, etc. GLI and Dragon seem to not be interested in selling for legacy or even alternative/crypto currencies :geek:

XRP does have the advantage, of course, of directly competing with the SWIFT system, along with their claim that XRP adoption will unlock the $5 trillion dollars worth of nostro/vostro accounts tied up in the legacy financial system. It also is "crypto" enough for regulators to be happy about it, and for the average person to think it is different enough without needing to go towards the greater decentralization provided by BTC and the like.

In other words, it's an IRL "eCoin" for anyone familiar with the "Mr. Robot" TV show:



I've actually seen some crazy valuation/projection amounts thrown out there for XRP (as in $220 to $10k+ per XRP :wtf: ):

https://www.tradingview.com/chart/XRPUS ... tion-Here/
https://www.tradingview.com/chart/XRPUS ... The-World/
https://www.tradingview.com/chart/XRPUS ... rypto-XLM/



So there's the competition IMO :wave:
Phoenix wrote:
2019-09-21, 11:20
Projects like this, I think are priced at about 50M-1B market cap at the MVP stage (in our case, when it is possible to log in to something other than a google sheet)
I still have the CK source code, database, and domains if you need a leg up on this :P
Last edited by HSF Loaf on 2019-09-22, 17:47, edited 1 time in total.
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Re: Wall Observer BTC/GLI - GLI price movement tracking & discussion

Post by Phoenix »

There is the balance between false equality and oversized influence.

Currently, the System leaders have oversized influence on the power balance and other people's lives.

My wish is to increase everybody's influence on their own lives, and in this doing, reduce my own influence.

It just happens that in the beginning, the founder has a lot of influence - which cannot be called oversized, because it is fair. Distributing the power too widely ends up in bureaucracy and lack of direction.

Satoshi had 70% of BTC in the end of 2009. Now he has 6%.

I plan to do the same. No more, no less. Both me and Satoshi are long-term thinkers and understand that there is an optimal number, and have the same idea of its magnitude. (Same is said to be Gates' ownership in MSFT).
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Re: Wall Observer BTC/GLI - GLI price movement tracking & discussion

Post by Phoenix »

Our difference from Ripple is that:
- Both have a platform with genuine native uses for the coin. Ours is more fundamental and powerful, though.
- Both require trust on the issuer, but our balances are public. This creates a deeper level of trust.
- Ripple is serving the Systemic interests, we end the System. We have a mission, which is fulfilled by the propagation.
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Re: Wall Observer BTC/GLI - GLI price movement tracking & discussion

Post by seonsakke »

This thread is highly interesting. I may use this for some future books.

One question:
Phoenix wrote:
2019-09-22, 17:47
Satoshi had 70% of BTC in the end of 2009. Now he has 6%.

I plan to do the same. No more, no less. Both me and Satoshi are long-term thinkers and understand that there is an optimal number, and have the same idea of its magnitude. (Same is said to be Gates' ownership in MSFT).
[mention]Dragon[/mention], what is this "6 %" based on?

Also, the existence (and need for) whales in an economy is something I'd like to explore more. With GLI, the goal is not to have "everyone has equal funds", but rather that there is a distribution based on face-value equality (socialism) but rather a meritocratic (REP) and legacy-related (legacy investments) basis for the existence and accumulation of funds.
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Re: Wall Observer BTC/GLI - GLI price movement tracking & discussion

Post by Phoenix »

Soul has managed to buy GLI for his 2 BTC, and this stash is now 23,128 GLI (SoulFund). He does not have plans for further purchases atm.

Advance announcement that in tomorrow's Fixing, I have 1.445 BTC that will be used to buy GLI regardless of the exchange rate. (Deducted will be the possible direct "withdrawals" before that.)

If investors want to use my services for buying GLI to a new character, please contact me now. It will take 15-30 minutes to set up your character, and you will have to pay in Bitcoin in advance, latest 19DW87 (6pm Finland). The cost of setting up your account depends on the CharID chosen (minimum 100 GLI) and what info is provided (0...600 GLI).
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