HOW TO INVEST & SPECULATE IN KINGLI ECONOMY

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HOW TO INVEST & SPECULATE IN KINGLI ECONOMY

Post by Phoenix »

MARKET INFORMATION & SPECULATION GUIDE ON ITEMS IN KINGLI PLATFORM


1. Kingli is a platform that basically supports two kinds of data:
- Characters are accounts that are controlled by Players (real-life people).
- Items are things that are owned by one Character at a time.

Some of the Characters themselves are owned by other Characters. This is the case in for instance Corporations.


2. Items have different types, explained below from the Investing & Speculating perspective:

Itemtype_ID [text] Itemtype_name [text] Itemtype_description [text]
VC1 Collectible Virtual item, free and clear.
VC2 Right Represents a right, share or stake in something.
VC3 Obligation Another Character promises something to the holder of this.
VC4 Currency Used in pricing other items.
VC5 Awardable These points have special rules.
VC6 CharID Unincorporated CharID
VC7 Consumable Consumable Item


3. Collectible items

These items are fully virtual items whose value solely is determined in the aftermarket. Typically the value here is based on scarcity - it just is cool to own something that not so many copies exist. Often the initial issue is also the final (this must be stated when the item is introduced).

At the moment, the collectibles markets are not well established. When CK5 comes (~35DW), they will proliferate greatly. CK4 had more than 2,000 items (of which hundreds had multiple instances each, allowing (semi) liquid markets to develop). Then some of these items may also have in-game roles, which may affect their value.

Investing in collectibles is a long-term play because even when developed, the markets usually have a large spread in bids/asks.
i) Some of the successful players in these markets have employed a market-making strategy (having bids/asks in place simultaneously to capture the spread when others want/need to sell/buy).
ii) It is also possible to use a hoarding strategy (attempt to capture a large position in an item that is rare and sought by many for their collections, and then sell these at an elevated price).
iii) Collection strategy was successfully employed by eg. Syksy in CK4, where he managed to collect all the 200+ gold coins (one copy of each) then existing, and sold this to Loaf at what amounts to 500M+ GLI now.


4. Rights (shares)

Kingli Corporations may be securitised. In this case, the Administration issues a stock ticker for it, and shares of stock are created.

For instance, The Dragon Times (#24) is a Kingli Corporation, and its ticker is S-TDT. It has 2 series, the free-trading S-TDT and the locked up S-TDTL54 (the number indicating the lock-up period in weeks). The locked-up shares are converted to normal shares at the end of the period. Otherwise they enjoy equal privileges to the normal shares, they just cannot be traded.

The Corporations' value depends on their business (cash flow) and assets (items owned). In addition to Kingli items, Corporations may have titles to outside-world items, and this may greatly affect their value. For instance a company specialising in foreign exchange, needs to have balances in outside-world financial assets (eg. BTC in blockchain or fiat currencies in paper/bank). A Kingli corporation may be a partial or full (beneficial) owner of an outside-world business venture, and other examples. To correctly assess the value of this kind of company, they must provide financial statements, by posting here what they (claim to) own in addition to what the Kingli ledger says. Financial statements also tell whether the company is making a profit or a loss, and whether its cash-flow is positive or not.

In our growth, we are not yet in the stage where it makes sense to require rigorous financial explanations, so it is "buyer beware" very much. Luckily the Corporations are operated by pillars of the community, so this adds to the trust. In addition, it is currently already possible to earn postnominals:
AAA - Best investment grade
AA - Very good investment grade
A - Investment grade.
The Administration awards these to Kingli Corporations that play by the book. Later, different account types will be possible for corporations that have a verified governance etc.

Corporations that are listed, typically seek to offer active markets for their owners, to enable portfolio changes and profits. The standard way to do this is a SELLBUY ladder marketmaking. Coinshop offers to do this for assets in good standing, but it is possible for anyone to do it, including the company itself. This ladder makes it possible to have a liquid market with low spreads, so that especially small traders can make very good percentage profits by watching the markets.

Kingli Corporations are a very good way to invest your GLI. You can trade in and out, make money, participate in decision-making in the AGM, some companies pay dividends, and it is even possible to use margin (in the future!).


5. Obligations

The difference between a right and an obligation is that while a right does not have a counterparty who is obliged to deliver something, an obligation does. All promises that some issuer makes, are obligations. These come in a variety of flavors, eg.
i) Depository shares: Someone operates a depository of (typically) financial assets, which are securitised and convertible. Convertibility means that by returning the Obligation to the issuer, you can get the outside world asset that it represents.
ii) Contracts: The issuer promises to pay some item at some date under some conditions. For instance a time-deposit is a contract, where the issuer promises to pay back with interest. A betting coupon is a contract whose payout depends on how the event was resolved.

It will soon be possible for everyone to issue obligations (against admin fee only). Even more than with Rights, the Obligations require the issuer to be trustworthy and willing to act reputably. To guarantee this, the obligations or their issuers may have collateral or guarantors.

Obligations are products that are intended for investing, and they often enjoy market making the same way as rights do. Since they typically expire, investing in them requires knowledge and timing. (Shares you can just buy because they don't go anywhere.) Because the actual value of obligations may change rapidly (eg. betting contracts resolve to 100% or 0%, and small changes may tip the scale in either way), evaluating the correct value requires skill, and the obligations are liquid to trade, they are a master instrument for speculators, who seek to win at the expense of others. Because - an obligation is a zero sum game (unlike other things in Kingli, whose value can just grow and no one ever loses).


6. CharID

CharID-space is a concept with a massive value. A single ID (ID11) was recently sold for 42M GLI (0.45% of all the money in existence). The ID-space is not limited, but some IDs just are more desirable than others.

The ID market can be understood such that the IDs are opened in batches. Currently we have opened (roughly) the 4-figure IDs. Next is the IDs until geometric half of the 5 figures (in this case, 10031...33333), then the rest of the 5 figures, and so on. About 15 such opening rounds with auctions will be arranged before there are enough IDs for everyone. This means one round in each 10-15 weeks.

The ID price will be lowered so that a bulk ID can be had at ~100 EUR worth of GLI ("in the end", this will be ~100 GLI). The IDs bought at higher prices (in the beginning, 1,000,000 GLI and soon 500,000 GLI, etc.) need to rise in value for the purchase to make sense. CharIDs offer an interesting market where market making probably makes the most sense - seeking to buy highest-grade IDs at reasonable prices in their initial auctions, and then selling them to aspiring Characters at a healthy profit. This requires a lot of capital, though. But how can you lose with CharIDs?? :P


7. Other things (Currency, Awardable, Consumable)

These do not presently offer speculative opportunities for different reasons.
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Re: HOW TO INVEST & SPECULATE IN KINGLI ECONOMY

Post by HSF Loaf »

Phoenix wrote:
2019-12-04, 17:37
iii) Collection strategy was successfully employed by eg. Syksy in CK4, where he managed to collect all the 200+ gold coins (one copy of each) then existing, and sold this to Loaf at what amounts to 500M+ GLI now.
The coin collection is/was probably worth a lot more. At 35mil GLI per BTC, 500mil GLI is only 15 BTC.

I don't remember the M supply at the time, but the coin collection went for a 700mil M purchase price. I'm not sure if additional M was needed, but Syksy was then able to clear out a large chunk of the B1 (BTC depository) order books in a single go. If he only needed the funds raised from his coin collection, he was able to turn them into a 100+ BTC withdrawal :wtf:

Actually, if the M to B1 conversion happened over a longer period of time, the collection could have cashed out even more BTC.

Who knows, maybe CK5 archeologists will uncover my coin collection in the New World™ and we can see what it goes for today...

While they're at it, they should hunt up The Imperial Diamond™ as well... :lol:

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Re: HOW TO INVEST & SPECULATE IN KINGLI ECONOMY

Post by Phoenix »

Founding of Their Majesties' Investment Funds (TMIF)


Three aspiring money managers:
HE Prince Dr. Wang, Ph.D., SC, SSC, DoMM, Healer of the old and feeble, FF, DLB, OA-O
HE Prince Syksy Syyskuu of Petrichor, Comptroller in KotD, Ph.D, FF
HE Prince Neo, Community manager, OA-C, NKP-CC, AM, FF, SoPoW


will take on helms of the TMIF to be created. The idea is as follows:


1. Each one gets an initial investment of 100M GLI from the Dragon Group ("DG" = Dragon-related accounts + Soul), and 100,000 shares @1,000 GLI each are created accordingly. The DG participation to each of the funds is equal, so that there is no preference. The DG do not exert specific influence on investment decisions.

2. In addition, the public has possibility to invest in the TMIF according to their liking, however such that the minimum investment is 1,000 shares (1M GLI). They may decide which TMIF/s to buy. These subscription deadline is 28DW127 and they must be announced in this thread. Funds will be billed automatically.

3. The managers must self incorporate their TMIF, choose their names, buy the CharIDs, and (post-fact) deduct that from the TMIF funds. The Manager thus becomes the Parent of the fund, in addition to the CO. The Supervisor is HM The King.

4. As compensation for his efforts, the Fund Manager is given:

i) A nominal salary of PG40 (100,000 GLI/week) (amounting to <0.1% of the assets per week)
ii) 2% "signing bonus" share of the initial stock (the stock purchased by DG and the Public in 1.-2. above), added to the sharecount
iii) 10% Option program:

The Manager is entitled to purchase stock of his TMIF amounting to 10% of the initial (1.-2.) capital of the TMIF in question. If for instance the TMIF starts with 122,000 stocks, the option is for 12,200 stocks. The purchase price is 800 GLI/share, exercise begins 54DW and ends 68DW, during which they may be exercised at any time. This is a real option, so the exercise requires actual GLI to be paid and actual shares are created, and book value or market value do not matter. The resulting shares are free trading immediately, though. Unexercised Options are canceled if employment terminates. Very tentatively it is intended that option programs with similar terms are launched every 13 weeks, so that there always are incentives for the Managers to perform, and disincentives to quit.

5. The stock initially is NOT free trading. It is planned to enable free trading and BUYSELL market making in 1...10 weeks.

6. The Manager must not engage in market manipulation clearly exceeding the limits of good taste, including but not limited to:
- Trading (with himself or others) in a manner with an intention to profit the counterparty at the expense of the TMIF
- Price rigging
- Causing undue volatility with high-frequency trading (our market platform is not designed for that).

7. Collectibles/Consumables markets are not yet really opened and there is little to buy in the Stocks/Obligations. All of these will change soon, though, with a lot of stuff to come to the markets in the following weeks. But at the very now, the main investable is CharIDs, which have 2 opportunities:
- DUMP of the current ID-space from 1M to 0.5M each.
- Auction of the next batch of IDs [10031...33333], according to the preliminary terms, taking into account holidays.

IDs are a slowish and illiquid market but purchasing the right ones and managing inventory requires plenty of skill, and can yield immense profits (HSF Loaf's sale of an ID for 42M)

8. The Managers must file Kingli Corporation Articles, including broad Investment Strategies, pretty much immediately, to make it possible for the public to make informed decisions whether to subscribe the shares by 28DW127.
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Re: HOW TO INVEST & SPECULATE IN KINGLI ECONOMY

Post by Phoenix »

Preliminary announcement on BTC/XMR/EUR/USD/AGD Depositories


It is in the works that such be created, but at the moment this is not an immediate priority. Having Depositories will allow:
- Investors of legacy funds can deploy them immediately and as is, and build their participation in GLI and Kingli economy over the timeframe of their choice.
- Participants of the Economy can include legacy funds in their portfolio without need to exit the funds from Kingli altogether
- Speculation with currency values (practically: GLI value in legacy currencies) becomes possible and liquid 24/7.

If a Character in good standing feels he is able to operate one, please contact me (also in private). Note: operating a Depository is a human right and our financial supervision (me) is laissez-faire, so I am likely to bless the effort. Just thinking that coordination is good at the moment when these will be the first such services and it is important to build general trust on our financial matrix.
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Re: HOW TO INVEST & SPECULATE IN KINGLI ECONOMY

Post by Phoenix »

Preliminary announcement on Interest-Bearing or Maturing Securities


Background

While we are in the process of creating a world with minimised incentives or opportunities for rent-seeking, some economic zero-sum concepts are nevertheless facts that do exist. Ignoring or downplaying them will hamper the development of financial markets, and thus, our whole economy, and cause GLI to have less value and market cap than it rightfully deserves as the currency and monetary energy of the new world, the Kingdom.

One of such is the interest rate. The legacy world financial system has been driven to the ground, where there are no functioning/profitable opportunities to invest in a large scale anymore. All money is created only fictitiously to add to the debt of the already debt-laden governments, who do not produce economic value. (At the same time profitable private and small biz are denied loans, but let's not rant here.) Therefore the interest rates for legacy debt-fiat currencies (EUR, USD, etc) are close to zero, even negative.

Within thriving voluntary economies, such as BTC, the interest rate on BTC deposits paid by somewhat-trustable issuers was 6-30% APR in 2014. Now it's probably less but my time does not allow an in-depth research just yet. In CK4, the Consols paid 23% in the end. A large part of these high interest rates are because they represent the risk premium of the multiple counterparties and risky stake groups involved in such instruments (namely, business risk (for which money was raised), issuer risk, financial intermediary risk, regulatory risk).


Interest rate in GLI economy

Theoretically, since the risks associated with purchasing GLI debt instruments (depositing GLI to gain interest income in GLI) does not differ from risks of holding GLI in the first place, the interest rate associated should be native and dependent on economic factors. With no premium on the risk.

Whether it makes sense for anyone to offer such instruments for others to subscribe, depends on the need for credit in the economy. Compared to debt-based fiat economy (practised in almost all countries in the world atm), there should be very much less need for long-term credit in the first place. Let us see.


Interest paid for deposits of foreign currency

Theoretically, since foreign currencies' native risk-free interest rate is zero, the interest on them entirely represents the risk premium of the issuer and of Kingli platform. The situation therefore is completely the opposite as the situation with GLI debt above.

When the Depositories (above) are created, such instruments will be introduced in all currencies. For them to have much meaning, the liquidity needs to be high. We cannot give indication when this is deemed appropriate. The selection of products will be limited at first as well, to concentrate the trading volume to some products to ensure the liquidity.


Issuers and products to be offered in the near future

Payday loans (running a few days until the next weekly allowance, or maximum about 4 weeks) are a feature that is already happening voluntarily between people. This should continue on voluntary terms. It is possible that payday loans will be professionally offered in the future though. This well suits for private (non-DragonGroup) businesses as well. In CK4 this was handled by Princess Roopatra.

Margin-trading in Investment-grade Kingli stocks is coming at some point, just because this is fun. Probably the margin offered would only be 2-3x in the beginning, though. But adventurous speculators can add that to initially operating on borrowed money...

Options to buy GLI for legacy currency, and similar products that (further) leverage the (already astronomical) speed of GLI/(EUR/BTC) exchange rate appreciation, will be offered for the brave. Well-timing these, will make you fortunes. (And well, you can only lose what you invested.)

The selection of products to be offered will by no means end there. If something is possible, it will be created. Everything is true. ;) :lol: :mrgreen:


Separation of Bet and Bank businesses

If it happens that there is a demand for long-term loans and long-term interest-bearing savings in GLI, it is possible that such a business is separated to a dedicated company, to separate the risks, ease governance and allow investors to decide on which one to own. In CK4, this was called The Hypothecary Bank in CryptoTown, and its main business was to offer 50% financing for virtual real estate projects.
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Re: HOW TO INVEST & SPECULATE IN KINGLI ECONOMY

Post by JPB »

Name:
TMIF Pretty Important Assets - Administered by DrWang

Initial manager roles:
C7 - Supervisor - Dragon
C6 - Executive Chairman - DrWang

Articles of association:
1. The name of the fund is "TMIF Pretty Important Assets".
2. The purpose of the fund is to hold and trade with all tradable assets in the Kingdom.
3. The most crucial investment strategy of this fund is to buy underappreciated character IDs (and other items) and sell them for profit.

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Re: HOW TO INVEST & SPECULATE IN KINGLI ECONOMY

Post by Syksy »

Name:
TMIF - Grizzly Bear Investment Fund (GBIF, inspired legacy name; fund run by Syksy)

CharID:
41

Strategy:
GBIF is interested not only in companies and initiatives, but also in speculation for KINGLI-incorporated goods and niché products. This focus rises partly from past experience (i.e. CK4) on a similar platform (Grizzly Bear was a successful CK4 company producing BEER and clothing during consumables era of CK4, with Syksy as its acting CEO). Regarding novel initiatives, GBIF is mainly interested in companies that actually have a product with a solid & ready proof-of-concept and preferably some prior example case of such a functional enterprise either in-game or in real-life. GBIF therefore seeks to be a data-driven, sensible choice for people looking for a fund with its feet firmly on the ground.
Last edited by Syksy on 2019-12-05, 16:26, edited 1 time in total.
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Re: HOW TO INVEST & SPECULATE IN KINGLI ECONOMY

Post by Phoenix »

Syksy wrote:
2019-12-05, 16:06
Name:
TMIF - Grizzly Bear Investment Fund (GBIF, inspired legacy name; fund run by Syksy)

CharID:
TBA

Strategy:
GBIF is interested not only in companies and initiatives, but also in speculation for KINGLI-incorporated goods and niché products. This focus rises partly from past experience (i.e. CK4) on a similar platform (Grizzly Bear was a successful CK4 company producing BEER and clothing during consumables era of CK4, with Syksy as its acting CEO). Regarding novel initiatives, GBIF is mainly interested in companies that actually have a product with a solid & ready proof-of-concept and preferably some prior example case of such a functional enterprise either in-game or in real-life. GBIF therefore seeks to be a data-driven, sensible choice for people looking for a fund with its feet firmly on the ground.
Does it buy CharIDs?
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Re: HOW TO INVEST & SPECULATE IN KINGLI ECONOMY

Post by Syksy »

Phoenix wrote:
2019-12-05, 16:12
Syksy wrote:
2019-12-05, 16:06
Name:
TMIF - Grizzly Bear Investment Fund (GBIF, inspired legacy name; fund run by Syksy)
- -
Does it buy CharIDs?
Yes, the in-game asset speculations include ID#### purchases.
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Re: HOW TO INVEST & SPECULATE IN KINGLI ECONOMY

Post by Neo »

TMIF-JLD



THE Articles of TMIF-JLD:

C7 - Supervisor HMSH THE DRAGON
C6 - Executive Chairman (EC) NEO 42
C5 - Board members
C4 - COO Põdrus 161
C3 - Lower C-suite, (Executive) Directors, EVP etc. announced later
C2 - Senior Officers (SVP/VP as titles and similar) announced later
C1 - announced later


TMIF-JLD the company has 100 000 shares ,
the shareholders have the right to appoint the Board to select the EC, or COO selects the EC directly, if under 20% of shareholders vote.
The KC (TMIF-JLD) must at all times have both an appointed or acting Supervisor, and the EC.
The purpose of the fund is to hold and trade with all tradeable assets in the Kingdom.
The investment strategy of this fund is to buy low and sell high among other items aquire character IDs and sell them for profit.


Character ID 543
HH Duke Neo 42, Community and fund Manager at TKoTD 🐉
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